Tuesday, March 10, 2009

whats for dinner tomorrow?

I have been going on and on about how bleak the future is,and one shrill woman told me I was crazy. Well I asumed I would hear it, Im a bit I guess.

But it is bad, and only a true fool cant see it.

California is periously close to complete collapse. People living in tent cities. Tax riots. Supermarkets closing. Its bad out there, and the people are leaving, "Go east my son!"

One guy the other day said"well, tom if you didnt look at all the economists out there saying negative things, and looked at te economists using data... blah blah"

He is right, we are being told its going to turn around. But what else do they say?

Bertrand Russel is one of my favorite people to have ever lived. Some of his quotes are my favorite. Google, therefore all progress for the best. so I give you his christmas turkey allegory. I hate having turkey at X mas, I prefer ham. lol

Consider the case of Bertrand Russell's Inductivist Turkey

"The turkey found that, on his first morning at the turkey farm, that he was fed at 9 a.m. Being a good inductivist turkey he did not jump to conclusions. He waited until he collected a large number of observations that he was fed at 9 a.m. and made these observations under a wide range of circumstances, on Wednesdays, on Thursdays, on cold days, on warm days. Each day he added another observation statement to his list. Finally he was satisfied that he had collected a number of observation statements to inductively infer that ``I am always fed at 9 a.m.''. However on the morning of Christmas eve he was not fed but instead had his throat cut.''

what would an economist say? they dont know any better than to think growth. But guess what, we are not going to see growth for a long time. And with no growth, our debt is going to become an anchor...that soaks up water.

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